Update on the Wabash Candidates
People in the Crawfordsville area tuning into the Fox News Channel on cable this week will have noticed two new congressional campaign ads from familiar faces. Both Luke Messer (Wabash class of 1991) and Todd Rokita (class of 1992) have hit the airwaves over the past week, demonstrating that they are forces to be reckoned with in their respective primaries.
Rokita, running here in the fourth district to replace retiring Republican congressman Steve Buyer, is in an especially strong position. As the current Indiana Secretary of State, Rokita has name recognition that the other candidates (and there are many of them) lack. The latest poll taken from the district shows Rokita with a commanding lead — taking 40 percent of the vote, with his next closest challenger, State Senator Mike Young, pulling only 10 percent (and Buyer’s favored replacement, Brandt Hershman, thus far only receives 8 percent). The primary is not until May, and things could change quickly — Rokita, being the frontrunner, no doubt now has a huge target on his back, with thirteen challengers to shoot at it. But for the time being, the Rokita campaign must feel fairly comfortable.
Luke Messer, on the other hand, faces an uphill battle in his fifth district primary fight. He’s challenging incumbent Congressman Dan Burton for the Republican nomination. Burton is fairly unpopular in his district, with a recent poll putting his reelection numbers at a mere 28 percent. The number of primary challengers his unpopularity has inspired, however, gives him an edge in being renominated. Messer is one of five Republican challengers, and they are all likely to split the anti-Burton vote. Messer, however, is the most impressive of the challengers when it comes to both popularity and fundraising, and if the field ever begins to coalesce, it will likely be around him.
A third Wabash man, Carlos May (class of 2001) is running an aggressive campaign in the traditionally Democratic seventh district. May is the slated candidate of the Marion County Republican Party, but he still faces a primary challenge from Marvin Scott, the Butler University professor who has run and lost in the seventh district four previous times. It may seem at first that Scott, who is more socially conservative and has tremendous name recognition in the district, would be the obvious choice. But his campaign organization is lacking (as evidenced by his previous defeats at the state and local levels), and May is proceeding with an air of confidence that is quintessentially Wabash (and unmistakably Fiji). His tenacity creates a contrast that may well resonate with Indianapolis Republicans. I’ve not seen any polls from this district, so only time will tell.
Finally, in the midst of all these Congressional campaigns, Charlie White (class of 1992) is running a quiet campaign to replace Todd Rokita as Secretary of State. The Indiana Secretary of State is not nominated by popular vote, but instead chosen by delegates to the Indiana Republican Convention. Thus far, White has no challengers for the nomination, and his campaign has consisted of traveling to Lincoln Day dinners across the state and raising funds for the general election. Should he be nominated, which seems very likely, Republican candidates for statewide offices like Secretary of State rarely lose.
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